Finnish online retail grew by nearly 5 percent in euros during the third quarter, while the number of orders increased by 14 percent. The E-commerce Index, produced by Vilkas Group Oy, highlights changes in consumer behavior. Finns are shopping online more frequently than before, but they are purchasing lower-priced products. The index is based on real transaction data from nearly 2,000 Finnish online stores.
According to Markku Korkiakoski, Chairman of the Board at Vilkas Group Oy, the growth of e-commerce is vital for the economy, but the massive surge in imports of cheap goods from Chinese online stores poses a serious threat to domestic e-commerce.
“The explosive growth of low-cost Chinese imports demands quick action – the danger is already close,” Korkiakoski warns.
He notes that consumers have become increasingly price-sensitive. Combined with the growing influx of inexpensive products from China, this has led to a sharp shift in purchasing behavior. At the same time, Finnish households still hold substantial savings accumulated during recent years of uncertainty.
Korkiakoski, who has long studied the connection between e-commerce and the broader economy, has conducted an AI-assisted analysis showing that the critical tipping point for Finnish online retail is fast approaching. If the flow of cheap Chinese imports is not curbed, it could seriously undermine domestic operators.
“A purely mathematical analysis shows that if nothing changes, the market share of Finnish small and medium-sized online retailers could fall to a critical level of just 5% by mid-2026. In practice, this would mean that many businesses would no longer have a viable share of the market,” Korkiakoski estimates.
Two Possible Ways to Reverse the Trend
According to Korkiakoski, there are two realistic and complementary paths to changing direction.
The first is EU regulation, which could quickly narrow the competitive gap created by cheap imports. The second is economic growth: as uncertainty eases, consumers are more likely to spend on higher-quality, often domestic, products. This would increase the average purchase value and strengthen both Finnish e-commerce and the wider economy.
“However, this won’t happen automatically. Domestic online stores must meet consumer demand with high-quality service and competitive pricing,” Korkiakoski emphasizes.
A Wider Economic Concern
A crisis in Finnish online retail caused by cheap imports from China would deal a blow to the entire retail sector, with negative impacts on employment and the national economy. Yet there are also positive signs, such as strong export deals and the steady euro-based growth in online sales.
“Now is the time to focus on economic growth – while also ensuring that the flood of cheap imports from China is brought under control,” Korkiakoski concludes.